2026-04-10 –, Sihl (Y24-G-55)
In 2026, the digital payment landscape is no longer a simple debate between "crypto" and "fiat." It has evolved into a sophisticated game of incentives played by governments, central banks, commercial banks, and decentralized operators. In this talk, I will analyze the complex layers of this competition. From central banks establishing trust anchors to governments navigating the strategic benefits of stablecoins as buyers of sovereign debt, the interests are varied and often overlapping. I will explore how these different actors navigate the trade-offs between stability, yield, and control, but rather highlighting the incentives that will shape the ecosystem's future.
The payment landscape in 2026 is defined by a multi-polar competition. While frameworks like MiCA and the US GENIUS Act have provided a structure, the market remains in a state of flux as various players test their specific advantages.
In this session, I will break down this "money game" and the diverse incentives driving each group of participants:
Governments and Sovereign Interests: Exploring why some states may have strong incentives to support stablecoin growth—for example, as a significant source of demand for government treasuries—and how this balances against the need for monetary sovereignty.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): Analyzing their role as a potential trust-anchor for the financial system, while looking at the inherent design limitations that affect their programmability and adoption.
Bank-Issued and Regulated Stablecoins: How traditional financial institutions are attempting to bridge the gap between legacy trust and on-chain efficiency.
Yield-Bearing and Decentralized Stablecoins: A look at how the integration of Real-World Assets (RWAs) allows these tokens to compete on capital efficiency and provide utility beyond a simple medium of exchange.
The Regulatory Puzzle: Assessing the ongoing debate over stablecoin regulation and how these rules influence the competitive balance between private innovation and state-led initiatives.
While the future of payments is still being written, the inherent features of different digital assets—speed, yield, and adaptability—will dictate how they find their territory. I will provide an economic perspective on the coexistence of these forms of money and the strategic "moves" we can expect from the players involved in the years to come.
Matthias Hafner is the Managing Director of the Center for Cryptoeconomics. He focuses on projects related to blockchain applications, token economics, and competition. He has led numerous initiatives and supported a diverse range of clients, including startups, top-tier protocols, corporations, and governments. Matthias holds a PhD with a dissertation on "Economics of Decentralized Applications in Finance" from the University of Zurich and regularly publishes in academic journals. Prior to joining the Center for Cryptoeconomics, he worked for the Swiss government.