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UID:pretalx-ethereum-zurich-2026-YE8UDP@cfp.ducttape.events
DTSTART;TZID=CET:20260410T161000
DTEND;TZID=CET:20260410T163000
DESCRIPTION:Public blockchains are often described as passive settlement la
 yers\, while “real” price discovery is assumed to occur on centralized
  exchanges. This talk challenges that view.\nUsing the complete set of Eth
 ereum transactions from 2022–2023\, we study how execution behavior on-c
 hain contributes to price discovery across decentralized and centralized m
 arkets. We introduce a simple but powerful concept—execution urgency—w
 hich measures how strongly a wallet appears to “want” its transaction 
 executed. Urgency is inferred from observable choices such as gas fees pai
 d\, transaction timing\, transaction size\, routing paths\, and the use of
  rare assets or specialized smart contracts.\nWe show that execution urgen
 cy is not random. Instead\, it consistently captures economically meaningf
 ul behavior. A data-driven decomposition reveals two intuitive components:
  one related to execution intensity (how costly\, large\, or time-sensitiv
 e a transaction is)\, and another related to structural rarity (how unusua
 l the assets\, contracts\, or counterparties involved are).\nMost importan
 tly\, we find that high-urgency on-chain transactions systematically prece
 de lasting price changes on centralized exchanges. These transactions expl
 ain a disproportionate share of permanent price movements\, indicating tha
 t informed activity often originates on-chain before being reflected elsew
 here. Using rolling-window machine-learning models\, we further show that 
 urgency-based signals predict short-horizon returns and cross-venue order-
 flow imbalances.\nOur findings suggest that Ethereum’s execution layer i
 s not merely infrastructure—it actively participates in information tran
 smission. As financial activity increasingly migrates to programmable sett
 lement systems\, execution urgency emerges as a core microstructure primit
 ive for blockchain-based markets.
DTSTAMP:20261013T183002Z
LOCATION:Glatt (Y22-F-68/70)
SUMMARY:Ethereum Urgency Score - Prof. Arzé Karam
URL:https://cfp.ducttape.events/ethereum-zurich-2026/talk/YE8UDP/
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